Explorations in Intuitive Probability for Levels 1-2 Learning Areas: Number, Language Essential Skills Numeracy Problem Solving Communication Activity One Have on hand a bucket of coloured counters of two colours only - eg green and blue. Explain to the pupils that you are going to get them to close their eyes and pick two counters, one after another from the bucket. have each child in turn guess (predict) what colour counter they will pick out first and what colour counter they will pick out second. Write down these predictions Each pupil picks out their two counters and names the colours of each. After each child chooses … how many children predicted correctly? seat the children in the groups they achieve, eg blue/blue, green/green, blue/green. Did we get more children in one group than the others? What do they think will happen if they try it all again? Go through the process several times and note the results. Activity Two Introduce the idea that picking out one of each colour has more chance of happening than picking out two of the same colour. Take out half of the number of green counters in the bucket. What do the children think will happen? Why? Try picking out counters to test their ideas. Keep gradually removing green counters to show that the probability moves more towards picking out blue counters. Can the children give any reasons as to why this is so? list all the words the children used to describe the combinations of counters they picked out and the chances of events they predicted. make a green and blue 'counter book' or mobile using these words. Activity Three Now put equal amounts of three colours of counters in the bucket. Have pupils predict what colour combinations they could get when picking up two counters only, eg red/blue, red/green, green/green, blue/blue, red/red/, tally them and record as children pick counters up from the bucket keep picking up until the children are satisfied there are no more combinations Activity Four Increase the number of colours in the bucket and predict … which combinations are more likely than others? Why? how many combinations are possible Test out all predictions and tally results. Make bar graphs, pictograms of the results Further Directions Make a Probability Line. Use appropriate language for the three points on the line, eg Won't Happen/No Chance Could Happen/Is Possible Will Happen/ Certain Have the children place ideas and sentences in the appropriate columns of the probability line for everyday situations, eg it will rain tomorrow the sun will rise tomorrow ten cars will pass the school in the next ten minutes 30 people will walk past the school between now and 10am the sun will set in the east Use the probability line/chart on a regular basis to refine ideas of probability and certainty. Develop a 'Vocabulary of Chance' list. Do you have a lesson you would like to share with other teachers? Simply email us an attached Word, Works or PDF file and we will add it to our library. Don't forget to include your name and school so we can acknowledge your work. Click on the email icon below.